Comments

David Thompson Posted:
So very, very true. It beggars belief that we consider ourselves to be a developed nation when so much of our economy is based on selling milk powder or logs. BTW, I own a Plinius amplifier (my second) that drives a set of Theophany speakers.
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David Thompson Posted:
A robust but sobering report. It concerns me that confidence is rising, yet sales and exports are down and "manufacturers and exporters are still lagging behind other sectors". Surely we should wait until we're earning more money before we start spending more?
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siemens Posted:
Yes true! The only thing that will never die in this world is the nature and its science behind it. Great post.
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Kieran Ormandy Posted:
Thanks for the question Steven, Germany has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2009, and Switzerland has had stable manufacturing employment between 2006 – 2011, even in the face of ongoing Euro-zone issues. Korea has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2008 and Israel experienced large increases since 1998, while being stable over the last 4 years. Singapore has had increases in manufacturing employment over the last two years. These countries all value their manufacturing sectors and work to protect them, this is reflected in the above numbers and their performance through the GFC. Note data around the above examples was sourced from OECD labour market stats.
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John Walley Posted:
Point one: you should have no doubt what our Association says publically represent the views of our members. Point two: we don’t knee jerk responses, if you trace back our comments around NZPower you will see them link all the way back to our research in 2004 and 2005. All that material is fully linked from our comments above. Point three: you will note our comments on major users, sadly the same advantage does not accrue to smaller industrial users. The perverse incentives of the LRMC approach in all this are well known. Point four: the NZMEA is not like any other Association in New Zealand we admit only manufacturers and exporters into membership, and our public expressions are the views of that restricted membership.
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30/9/10

Survey - Manufacturing Sales Defy Downturn


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 The latest New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association (NZMEA) Survey of Business Conditions completed during September 2010, shows total sales in August 2010 increased 20% (export sales increased by 37% with domestic sales increasing 13%) on August 2009.

The NZMEA survey sample this month covered NZ$493m in annualised sales, with an export content of 36%.

Net confidence rose to 40, up from 30 last month.

The current performance index (a combination of profitability and cash flow) is at 107.5, up from 103.5 in July, the change index (capacity utilisation, staff levels, orders and inventories) went down to 100 from 101 in the last survey, and the forecast index (investment, sales, profitability and staff) is at 104.75, down on July’s result of 105.5. Anything less than 100 indicates a contraction.

Constraints reported were 80% markets, 10% capital and 10% skilled staff.

Staff numbers for August increased year on year by 7%.

“August has shown a great improvement in export sales. Again it is not across the board, but the last couple of survey results have been very encouraging. It is worth noting that several manufacturers who had particularly weak results at this time last year have had a very strong month this year, perhaps overstating the sales growth result,” says NZMEA Chief Executive John Walley.

“Growth is largely from manufacturers exporting to Australia and Asia where growth has continued despite the global recession. Those exporting to the United States and Europe are having a hard time with volume and margin.”

“We have seen terrible numbers from manufacturing in the June quarter GDP statistics so it is pleasing to see more up to date figures showing some improvement since then. Confidence and index numbers have remained in positive territory.”

“Staff numbers have grown for the fourth successive month.”

“While the numbers have been improving over the last couple of months, the message from firms was that this growth was occurring despite poor export conditions. A high dollar, low returns and the persistent presence of fiscal disincentives to invest in productive activity were mentioned as limiting factors. Business investment in the tradeable sector will suffer while a volatile dollar prevents exporters from accurately forecasting returns and support available for productive investment in other jurisdictions is not replicated here. The removal of these competitive disadvantages is long overdue.”

“The growing Balance of Payments deficit reported last week was very concerning. It indicates that the rebalancing towards export growth is not occurring at a fast enough rate, if at all.”

“Measures to encourage investment in export industries are a must if the Government is serious about the rebalancing process.”

 

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tags: survey, manufacturing sales, gdp, business investment

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