Comments

David Thompson Posted:
So very, very true. It beggars belief that we consider ourselves to be a developed nation when so much of our economy is based on selling milk powder or logs. BTW, I own a Plinius amplifier (my second) that drives a set of Theophany speakers.
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David Thompson Posted:
A robust but sobering report. It concerns me that confidence is rising, yet sales and exports are down and "manufacturers and exporters are still lagging behind other sectors". Surely we should wait until we're earning more money before we start spending more?
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siemens Posted:
Yes true! The only thing that will never die in this world is the nature and its science behind it. Great post.
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Kieran Ormandy Posted:
Thanks for the question Steven, Germany has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2009, and Switzerland has had stable manufacturing employment between 2006 – 2011, even in the face of ongoing Euro-zone issues. Korea has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2008 and Israel experienced large increases since 1998, while being stable over the last 4 years. Singapore has had increases in manufacturing employment over the last two years. These countries all value their manufacturing sectors and work to protect them, this is reflected in the above numbers and their performance through the GFC. Note data around the above examples was sourced from OECD labour market stats.
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John Walley Posted:
Point one: you should have no doubt what our Association says publically represent the views of our members. Point two: we don’t knee jerk responses, if you trace back our comments around NZPower you will see them link all the way back to our research in 2004 and 2005. All that material is fully linked from our comments above. Point three: you will note our comments on major users, sadly the same advantage does not accrue to smaller industrial users. The perverse incentives of the LRMC approach in all this are well known. Point four: the NZMEA is not like any other Association in New Zealand we admit only manufacturers and exporters into membership, and our public expressions are the views of that restricted membership.
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7/4/11

Sales drop after earthquake but forecasts hold up


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The latest New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association (NZMEA) Survey of Business Conditions completed during March 2011, shows total sales in February 2011 decreased 13% (export sales decreased by 26% with domestic sales decreasing 5%) on February 2010.

The NZMEA survey sample this month covered NZ$383m in annualised sales, with an export content of 32%.

Net confidence fell to -13, from the -11 result reported last month.

The current performance index (a combination of profitability and cash flow) is at 97.5, down from 100 in January, the change index (capacity utilisation, staff levels, orders and inventories) went down to 101 from 102 in the last survey, and the forecast index (investment, sales, profitability and staff) is at 101.25, down on February’s result of 104.5. Anything less than 100 indicates a contraction.

Constraints reported were 75% markets, 13% skilled staff and 13% production capacity.

Staff numbers for February decreased year on year by 1%.

“Sales have dropped as expected due to the impact of the earthquake in late February,” says NZMEA Chief Executive John Walley. “The good news is that confidence has not plummeted and the forecast index is still in positive territory.”

“This indicates that for those who have not had a plant completely destroyed or been cordoned off from their business most expect to be able to fill their orders. The feedback we are getting from members is that most will be able to catch up and supply all of their back orders, but it has taken considerably more than normal efforts to do so.”

“We will see less disruption in the March figures. April will see a more ‘normal' post-earthquake picture of sales and production.”

“There has been some talk of concerned overseas customers who are unsure about the ability of Christchurch firms to fill orders. The message is that Christchurch manufacturers are working hard and their customers are seeing pretty much delivery as usual.”

“As in previous months a low cross rate against the Australian dollar will continue to help while the high cross rates against the US Dollar and Euro are hindering the recovery.”

“As the cost of rebuild continues to escalate better policy settings for exporters are needed more than ever. Yes we have had an earthquake or two but global recessions, disasters elsewhere and absent tourists, leave a big hole to be filled.”

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tags: survey, christchurch earthquake, exchange rate

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