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New Zealand Bank Posted:
retail banking is all what an economy needs, I mean what are the governments are doing on this.
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New Zealand Bank Posted:
I don't understand why is the reserve bank so weak and poor !
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mist Posted:
Perhaps IMF formulas are not accurate for this area.
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mist Posted:
" tax increases in one area supports decreases in another is correct" it can only be correct if it is true. Observation and repeated sampling has proven that the hypothesis is faulty. Tax increases in one area are not causally linked to decreases elsewhere - not "possibly", not "it adds up". "Philosophically" it _might_ but testing proves it does not. One could even say "it should" but we both know an equivalent term for "it should" is "doesn't" What drives taxes down is political advantage. If a political party has an agenda they don't want the public to look at too closely, then sweeters (aka "bait") is put forwards. Tax decreases is a classic. This can be achieved because the tax increases and tax decreases are not linked. They're not zero sum nor do they have causal or proportional connection. This is because the "buffer solution" in the middle is that endless hole. tax increase means more spending. tax decrease means more government borrowing. The in/out relationship is decoupled, through size and power in the marketplace (financial economy). The abysmal productivity is because of the massive overheads from doing business in NZ. personal taxes double the rates of the US, huge taxes on goods and services, massive levies on critical imports, price gouging in the energy and communications markets, interest rates 300 to 500 times that of the US!, and not nearly the number of cost writeoffs either (subscriptions, training, vehicle rebates). Nor would get the 401k option either, of rebuying into the same market and not having to pay CGT. Oh and horrendous ever inflating local rates, again much much higher, for less, than our foreign counterparts (excepting Scandinavian countries). Our "abysmal production" is a result of this overtaxation being sand in the gears of the economy, wearing it down and rubbing out real growth. Putting CGT makes that problem worse!! And to sum up... your last comment.... O.M.G. You think that improving our situation, of people not wanting to save or invest in government buggered industry is to bugger up the ability to accumulate equity in useful assets??????? Where do you think people are going to get savings or capital to do anything??? (including retiring when their earning ability is severely reduced!) Put it in finance companies???????????? Buy the oh-so-excellently-performing NZX? In the few companies squeaking by?
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John Walley Posted:
I think we agree on the lending without security issue. It might well be that the intent to change the source of tax and not increase government spending is fictitious, however given the provision that government spending does not change the statement that tax increases in one area supports decreases in another is correct. The broader point is demonstrated by the Romney situation where he pays tax at half the rate of his salaried staff - and in the USA capital gains carry a 15% tax rate - it will be interesting to see how that one pans out. For New Zealand the economic distortions supported by the complete absence of capital gains tax are clear from our abysmal productivity record. Why save, why invest in production (taxed interest paid or via the income statement) when money can be made without tax from passive asset appreciation.
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7/4/11

IMF supports capital controls


Print-friendly 0 comment(s) Posted in: In the media

A year ago the International Monetary Fund (IMF) pointed to the lacklustre performance of those smaller economies fixated on the one lever (interest rates) one target (inflation) approach to monetary policy, now IMF advice is moving towards regulation of capital movements. New Zealand cannot afford to ignore this advice and persist with the failed purist approach to monetary policy say the New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association (NZMEA).

Late last year a report from the Bank of International Settlements showed New Zealand to represent about 1.6% of the global forex market, yet in GDP terms New Zealand is about 0.2% of the global economy – something is out of balance. How does forex trade at some 46 percent of GDP on a daily basis serve New Zealand?

Persistent high interest rates drive this speculative flow to many times that of our trade flows. Exchange rates do not reflect or support export activity and as a result the real economy has gone backwards since 2003. The IMF explains the problem well:

“Surges in inflows can pose challenges such as rapid currency appreciation and a buildup in financial sector fragilities, such as those stemming from asset price bubbles or rapid credit growth, or the risk of a sudden stop or reversal of inflows.”

NZMEA Chief Executive John Walley says, “This is a great description of a key New Zealand problem. Large capital inflows have caused a high currency and a house price bubble which reduced margins for exporters and starved many of credit. When the asset bubble burst in 2008 and the credit supply stopped we had finance company failures, and without the credit influx the Government struggles to balance its books.”

“The effects on economic growth are clear and there are still a number of borrowers sitting on negative equity.”

“The IMF details various measures that can be taken such as restricting banks foreign exchange position as a proportion of their total capital and using loan to value ratios to limit demand for credit.”

“These are useful measures that many other countries have been using with considerable success. It is time for our Government and Reserve Bank to remove their heads from the sand and take action to support New Zealand’s export economy.”
 



tags: imf, capital controls, credit growth, currency appreciation, monetary policy

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