David Thompson Posted:
So very, very true. It beggars belief that we consider ourselves to be a developed nation when so much of our economy is based on selling milk powder or logs. BTW, I own a Plinius amplifier (my second) that drives a set of Theophany speakers.
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David Thompson Posted:
A robust but sobering report. It concerns me that confidence is rising, yet sales and exports are down and "manufacturers and exporters are still lagging behind other sectors". Surely we should wait until we're earning more money before we start spending more?
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siemens Posted:
Yes true! The only thing that will never die in this world is the nature and its science behind it. Great post.
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Kieran Ormandy Posted:
Thanks for the question Steven, Germany has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2009, and Switzerland has had stable manufacturing employment between 2006 – 2011, even in the face of ongoing Euro-zone issues. Korea has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2008 and Israel experienced large increases since 1998, while being stable over the last 4 years. Singapore has had increases in manufacturing employment over the last two years. These countries all value their manufacturing sectors and work to protect them, this is reflected in the above numbers and their performance through the GFC. Note data around the above examples was sourced from OECD labour market stats.
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John Walley Posted:
Point one: you should have no doubt what our Association says publically represent the views of our members. Point two: we don’t knee jerk responses, if you trace back our comments around NZPower you will see them link all the way back to our research in 2004 and 2005. All that material is fully linked from our comments above. Point three: you will note our comments on major users, sadly the same advantage does not accrue to smaller industrial users. The perverse incentives of the LRMC approach in all this are well known. Point four: the NZMEA is not like any other Association in New Zealand we admit only manufacturers and exporters into membership, and our public expressions are the views of that restricted membership.
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Sales bounce at year end

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The latest New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association (NZMEA) Survey of Business Conditions completed during January 2012, shows total sales in December 2011 increased 5.27% (export sales increased by 15.4% with domestic sales decreasing 0.47%) on December 2010.

The NZMEA survey sample this month covered NZ$515m in annualised sales, with an export content of 40%.

The net confidence was 10, similar to November’s result of 11.

The current performance index (a combination of profitability and cash flow) is at 104.5, down from 106 in November, the change index (capacity utilisation, staff levels, orders and inventories) went down to 100 from 104 in the last survey, and the forecast index (investment, sales, profitability and staff) is at 104.75, up on November’s result of 104.25. Anything less than 100 indicates a contraction.

Constraints reported were 90% markets and 10% production capacity.

Staff numbers for December decreased year on year by 4.27%.

“A pickup in sales and reasonable index and confidence numbers indicate a more positive end to 2011,” says NZMEA Chief Executive John Walley. “The problems caused by an overvalued exchange rate and the debt crisis in Europe have not gone away, but sales are continuing despite the problems.”

“A year that brought a lot of bounces and troughs has ended with a bounce. With persistent problems at home and abroad it is likely that 2012 will confront similar uncertainty.”

“Markets were the main constraint reported for 90 percent of respondents indicating that concerns in Europe, and to a lesser extent the United States, are weighing heavily. There are also concerns that Asian and Australian growth may slow. Market concerns have now grown for the last four months.”

“A trending decline in staff numbers indicates there is little confidence in long-term prospects.”

“Some respondents in Christchurch have also noted that staff are leaving as a result of the earthquakes. The pre-Christmas aftershocks will not help this trend.”

“Exchange rates continue to be the major threat reported by manufacturers with many increasingly frustrated with the inaction from the Government and officials.”

“Unfortunately the year has opened with the Government persisting with the ‘there is nothing we can do, the problem is elsewhere’ line. The message from manufacturers and exporters is that other countries have taken measures to protect their own and New Zealand must do the same.”

“2012 must see an end to Government indifference towards the export sector.”



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tags: survey, staff, exchange rate, traded sector, markets


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