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David Thompson Posted:
So very, very true. It beggars belief that we consider ourselves to be a developed nation when so much of our economy is based on selling milk powder or logs. BTW, I own a Plinius amplifier (my second) that drives a set of Theophany speakers.
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David Thompson Posted:
A robust but sobering report. It concerns me that confidence is rising, yet sales and exports are down and "manufacturers and exporters are still lagging behind other sectors". Surely we should wait until we're earning more money before we start spending more?
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siemens Posted:
Yes true! The only thing that will never die in this world is the nature and its science behind it. Great post.
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Kieran Ormandy Posted:
Thanks for the question Steven, Germany has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2009, and Switzerland has had stable manufacturing employment between 2006 – 2011, even in the face of ongoing Euro-zone issues. Korea has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2008 and Israel experienced large increases since 1998, while being stable over the last 4 years. Singapore has had increases in manufacturing employment over the last two years. These countries all value their manufacturing sectors and work to protect them, this is reflected in the above numbers and their performance through the GFC. Note data around the above examples was sourced from OECD labour market stats.
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John Walley Posted:
Point one: you should have no doubt what our Association says publically represent the views of our members. Point two: we don’t knee jerk responses, if you trace back our comments around NZPower you will see them link all the way back to our research in 2004 and 2005. All that material is fully linked from our comments above. Point three: you will note our comments on major users, sadly the same advantage does not accrue to smaller industrial users. The perverse incentives of the LRMC approach in all this are well known. Point four: the NZMEA is not like any other Association in New Zealand we admit only manufacturers and exporters into membership, and our public expressions are the views of that restricted membership.
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7/12/12

Domestic Sales Stronger than Exports


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The latest New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association (NZMEA) Survey of Business Conditions completed during November 2012, shows total sales in October 2012 increased 7.05% (export sales increased by 1.90% with domestic sales increasing 11%) on October 2011.

The NZMEA survey sample this month covered NZ$594m in annualised sales, with an export content of 42%.

Net confidence improved to -18, up from the -33 result reported last month.

The current performance index (a combination of profitability and cash flow) is at 93.5, down from 98.0 in September, the change index (capacity utilisation, staff levels, orders and inventories) stayed the same as last month at 96.0, and the forecast index (investment, sales, profitability and staff) is at 98.5, up on September’s result of 96. Anything less than 100 indicates a contraction.

Constraints reported were 82% markets and 9% production capacity.

Staff numbers for October decreased year on year by 3.1%.

“We are seeing some increases in exports, but the large majority of the improvements in total turnover are being fuelled by domestic sales” says NZMEA Chief Executive John Walley.

“The domestic gains in turnover were patchy; although average domestic turnover increased by 11%, only 36% of respondents reported a rise.

“It is not unusual for our real numbers (this is the only survey that reports actual sales and job numbers) not to correspond with our sentiment indexes, sentiment says contraction and the numbers say sales expansion and job contraction. All up, I think the employment trend is the most telling and we should be concerned.”

“Market conditions continue as the main constraint on sales.”

“Opportunities are seen in the Christchurch rebuild, winning some new customers, but the major threats continue to be the exchange rate and soft demand.”

“The reported decrease in staff numbers, coupled with the long term trend of no growth continues to underpin the story of uncertainty and corresponding risk avoidance.”

 

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