David Thompson Posted:
So very, very true. It beggars belief that we consider ourselves to be a developed nation when so much of our economy is based on selling milk powder or logs. BTW, I own a Plinius amplifier (my second) that drives a set of Theophany speakers.
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David Thompson Posted:
A robust but sobering report. It concerns me that confidence is rising, yet sales and exports are down and "manufacturers and exporters are still lagging behind other sectors". Surely we should wait until we're earning more money before we start spending more?
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siemens Posted:
Yes true! The only thing that will never die in this world is the nature and its science behind it. Great post.
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Kieran Ormandy Posted:
Thanks for the question Steven, Germany has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2009, and Switzerland has had stable manufacturing employment between 2006 – 2011, even in the face of ongoing Euro-zone issues. Korea has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2008 and Israel experienced large increases since 1998, while being stable over the last 4 years. Singapore has had increases in manufacturing employment over the last two years. These countries all value their manufacturing sectors and work to protect them, this is reflected in the above numbers and their performance through the GFC. Note data around the above examples was sourced from OECD labour market stats.
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John Walley Posted:
Point one: you should have no doubt what our Association says publically represent the views of our members. Point two: we don’t knee jerk responses, if you trace back our comments around NZPower you will see them link all the way back to our research in 2004 and 2005. All that material is fully linked from our comments above. Point three: you will note our comments on major users, sadly the same advantage does not accrue to smaller industrial users. The perverse incentives of the LRMC approach in all this are well known. Point four: the NZMEA is not like any other Association in New Zealand we admit only manufacturers and exporters into membership, and our public expressions are the views of that restricted membership.
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Feeling a bit better but still worried

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The latest New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association (NZMEA) Survey of Business Conditions completed during May 2013, shows total sales in April 2013 increased 3.28% (export sales increased by 0.76% with domestic sales increasing 5.53%) on April 2012.

The NZMEA survey sample this month covered NZ$489m in annualised sales, with an export content of 46%.

Net confidence rose to -9, up from the -50 result reported last month.

The current performance index (a combination of profitability and cash flow) is at 101, up from 92.5 in March, the change index (capacity utilisation, staff levels, orders and inventories) went up to 100 from 99 in the last survey, and the forecast index (investment, sales, profitability and staff) is at 99.75, up on March’s result of 97. Anything less than 100 indicates a contraction.

Constraints reported were 82% markets, 9% production capacity and 9% skilled staff.

Staff numbers for April decreased year on year by 0.74%.

“This month’s results are a bounce back from last month, driven mostly by improved domestic sales. Export sales improved from their negative position last month. Generally trends are flat to negative.” says NZMEA Chief Executive John Walley.

“Falling staff numbers reinforces a soft declining overall trend, that said manufacturers continue to report difficulties in finding skilled staff.”

“Net confidence improved but is still in negative territory - the number of optimists continues to decline.”

“For exporters, markets are soft, and improving domestic demand is little help for those who operate predominately in export markets.”

“A recent RBNZ speech from Graeme Wheeler expressed a more pessimistic sentiment than usual, reflecting concerns over the overvalued dollar, increasing current account deficit and risks in the housing and credit markets to financial stability. We have expressed this view for some time and encourage the RBNZ to be much more active around these concerns. Given the comments from Bill English around currency the independence of the RBNZ may well be tested in the coming months, as they face up to the need to do more than talk.”

“Government and the RBNZ cannot ignore the exchange rate pressures on the real economy that flow from monetary policy contrasts. We saw a play through of quantitive easing in the USA on Ford in Australia. It is hard to be competitive with an overvalued Australian dollar, as a result of US monetary policy and work through the storm of currency impacts when the US head office is under pressure to repatriate jobs into the US.”



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tags: manufacturing, survey, exports, staff, confidence, exchange rate


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