David Thompson Posted:
So very, very true. It beggars belief that we consider ourselves to be a developed nation when so much of our economy is based on selling milk powder or logs. BTW, I own a Plinius amplifier (my second) that drives a set of Theophany speakers.
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David Thompson Posted:
A robust but sobering report. It concerns me that confidence is rising, yet sales and exports are down and "manufacturers and exporters are still lagging behind other sectors". Surely we should wait until we're earning more money before we start spending more?
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siemens Posted:
Yes true! The only thing that will never die in this world is the nature and its science behind it. Great post.
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Kieran Ormandy Posted:
Thanks for the question Steven, Germany has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2009, and Switzerland has had stable manufacturing employment between 2006 – 2011, even in the face of ongoing Euro-zone issues. Korea has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2008 and Israel experienced large increases since 1998, while being stable over the last 4 years. Singapore has had increases in manufacturing employment over the last two years. These countries all value their manufacturing sectors and work to protect them, this is reflected in the above numbers and their performance through the GFC. Note data around the above examples was sourced from OECD labour market stats.
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John Walley Posted:
Point one: you should have no doubt what our Association says publically represent the views of our members. Point two: we don’t knee jerk responses, if you trace back our comments around NZPower you will see them link all the way back to our research in 2004 and 2005. All that material is fully linked from our comments above. Point three: you will note our comments on major users, sadly the same advantage does not accrue to smaller industrial users. The perverse incentives of the LRMC approach in all this are well known. Point four: the NZMEA is not like any other Association in New Zealand we admit only manufacturers and exporters into membership, and our public expressions are the views of that restricted membership.
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The latest New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association (NZMEA) Survey of Business Conditions completed during July 2013, shows total sales in June 2013 decreased 29.48% (export sales decreased by 16.21% with domestic sales decreasing 39.3%) on June 2012.

The NZMEA survey sample this month covered NZ$305m in annualised sales, with an export content of 51%.

Net confidence fell to 13, down from the 33 result reported last month.

The current performance index (a combination of profitability and cash flow) is at 98, down from 104 in May, the change index (capacity utilisation, staff levels, orders and inventories) went down to 103 from 105 in the last survey, and the forecast index (investment, sales, profitability and staff) is at 102.67, from May’s result of 103. Anything less than 100 indicates a contraction.

Constraints reported were 63% markets, 25% production capacity and 13% skilled staff.

Staff numbers for June increased year on year by 1.31%.

“After an improvement last month export sales are back on the falling trend, year on year, since late 2012; in contrast to an improving trend on domestic sales, now both domestic and export sales are in decline. The three month average for employment has levelled out offsetting a decline for most of this year,” says NZMEA Chief Executive John Walley.

“This suggests that for manufacturers and exporters in general, there is no cause for a party.”

“The currency did ease back in May and gave some hope, but it remains a slightly less overvalued lottery.”

“As anticipated, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) chose to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.5%, and once again acknowledging the negative effect the overvalued dollar is having on exporters, while pointing out the risk the overheating housing market has on financial stability. An earlier than necessary increase in the OCR to address house price inflation will have a further severe negative effect on manufacturers and exporters, by applying more upward pressure on our currency.”

“The RBNZ have talked about introducing Loan to Value Ratio “speed limits” to help address house price inflation and limit risks to financial stability. They should stop talking and start doing at once.”

“More can be done to better balance our economy, such as a capital gains tax. We must get serious about policies which incentivise earning a living instead of chasing capital gain; the sooner this happens, the better.”   

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tags: survey, exports, sales, turnover, domestic, confidence, currency, exchange rate, rbnz, lvr


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