David Thompson Posted:
So very, very true. It beggars belief that we consider ourselves to be a developed nation when so much of our economy is based on selling milk powder or logs. BTW, I own a Plinius amplifier (my second) that drives a set of Theophany speakers.
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David Thompson Posted:
A robust but sobering report. It concerns me that confidence is rising, yet sales and exports are down and "manufacturers and exporters are still lagging behind other sectors". Surely we should wait until we're earning more money before we start spending more?
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siemens Posted:
Yes true! The only thing that will never die in this world is the nature and its science behind it. Great post.
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Kieran Ormandy Posted:
Thanks for the question Steven, Germany has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2009, and Switzerland has had stable manufacturing employment between 2006 – 2011, even in the face of ongoing Euro-zone issues. Korea has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2008 and Israel experienced large increases since 1998, while being stable over the last 4 years. Singapore has had increases in manufacturing employment over the last two years. These countries all value their manufacturing sectors and work to protect them, this is reflected in the above numbers and their performance through the GFC. Note data around the above examples was sourced from OECD labour market stats.
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John Walley Posted:
Point one: you should have no doubt what our Association says publically represent the views of our members. Point two: we don’t knee jerk responses, if you trace back our comments around NZPower you will see them link all the way back to our research in 2004 and 2005. All that material is fully linked from our comments above. Point three: you will note our comments on major users, sadly the same advantage does not accrue to smaller industrial users. The perverse incentives of the LRMC approach in all this are well known. Point four: the NZMEA is not like any other Association in New Zealand we admit only manufacturers and exporters into membership, and our public expressions are the views of that restricted membership.
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Economy operating at two-speeds

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The latest New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association (NZMEA) Survey of Business Conditions completed during October 2013, shows total sales in September 2013 decreased 7.88% (export sales decreased by 17.91% with domestic sales increasing 5.63%) on September 2012.

The NZMEA survey sample this month covered NZ$414m in annualised sales, with an export content of 51%.

Net confidence fell to 0, down from the 18 result reported last month.

The current performance index (a combination of profitability and cash flow) is at 98.3, down from 100.7 in August, the change index (capacity utilisation, staff levels, orders and inventories) was at 100, down from 102 in the last survey, and the forecast index (investment, sales, profitability and staff) is at 102, down on Augusts’ result of 105. Anything less than 100 indicates a contraction.

Constraints reported were 78% markets, 11% production capacity and 11% skilled staff.

Productivity for September was unchanged from last survey.

Staff numbers for September increased year on year by 1.95%.

There was a moderate staff shortage reported for operator/labourers, tradespersons, supervisors, and professional/scientists and managers.

“Once again we can see that exports are continuing to struggle, while growth in the domestic economy is expanding domestic sales, we continue to see a two-speed economy.” says NZMEA Chief Executive John Walley.

“Confidence and index measures have all fallen on last month, making this survey generally less positive.”

“After a couple of months of a slightly lower currency, the upward pressure resumed. The Government shutdown in the U.S will delay the start of the taper of the Federal Reserve’s bond buying programme, and we have even seen the Reserve Bank of Australia comment about the possibility of their own currency intervention.”

“The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has made comment that the high dollar is helping to keep inflation under control, giving them the ability to lower or delay their future OCR increases. While this is great for consumers, the overvalued currency is having a damaging effect on our exporters and import competing manufacturers. The longer this continues, investment will be delayed, with on-going impacts on the growth of onshore activity, jobs, competitiveness and innovation.”


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tags: survey, exports, confidence, domestic, exchange rate, staff, sales, productivity


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