Comments

David Thompson Posted:
So very, very true. It beggars belief that we consider ourselves to be a developed nation when so much of our economy is based on selling milk powder or logs. BTW, I own a Plinius amplifier (my second) that drives a set of Theophany speakers.
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David Thompson Posted:
A robust but sobering report. It concerns me that confidence is rising, yet sales and exports are down and "manufacturers and exporters are still lagging behind other sectors". Surely we should wait until we're earning more money before we start spending more?
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siemens Posted:
Yes true! The only thing that will never die in this world is the nature and its science behind it. Great post.
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Kieran Ormandy Posted:
Thanks for the question Steven, Germany has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2009, and Switzerland has had stable manufacturing employment between 2006 – 2011, even in the face of ongoing Euro-zone issues. Korea has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2008 and Israel experienced large increases since 1998, while being stable over the last 4 years. Singapore has had increases in manufacturing employment over the last two years. These countries all value their manufacturing sectors and work to protect them, this is reflected in the above numbers and their performance through the GFC. Note data around the above examples was sourced from OECD labour market stats.
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John Walley Posted:
Point one: you should have no doubt what our Association says publically represent the views of our members. Point two: we don’t knee jerk responses, if you trace back our comments around NZPower you will see them link all the way back to our research in 2004 and 2005. All that material is fully linked from our comments above. Point three: you will note our comments on major users, sadly the same advantage does not accrue to smaller industrial users. The perverse incentives of the LRMC approach in all this are well known. Point four: the NZMEA is not like any other Association in New Zealand we admit only manufacturers and exporters into membership, and our public expressions are the views of that restricted membership.
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6/12/13

Exports show some improvement


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The latest New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association (NZMEA) Survey of Business Conditions completed during November 2013, shows total sales in October 2013 increased 14.82% (export sales increased by 36.52% with domestic sales decreasing 4.96%) on October 2012.

The NZMEA survey sample this month covered NZ$490m in annualised sales, with an export content of 57%.

Net confidence rose to 18, up from the 0 result reported last month.

The current performance index (a combination of profitability and cash flow) is at 103.7, up from 98.3 in September, the change index (capacity utilisation, staff levels, orders and inventories) was at 103, up from 100 in the last survey, and the forecast index (investment, sales, profitability and staff) is at 103.5, up on Septembers result of 102. Anything less than 100 indicates a contraction.

Constraints reported were 73% markets, 18% production capacity and 9% capital.

Net 27% of firms reported an improvement in productivity for October.

Staff numbers for October increased year on year by 0.35%.

There was a moderate staff shortage in each of the five areas we measure: operator/labourers, tradespersons, supervisors, professional/scientists plus managers.

“This month is generally more positive on last month, exports are up against a falling trend throughout 2013 and domestic sales have turned south against a positive trend since the middle of the year.” says NZMEA Chief Executive John Walley.

“Our indexes have improved on last month and staff numbers are continuing their small but positive trend.”

“It is too early to tell whether this improvement in export sales will continue, commentary is mixed and the depreciation of the Australian dollar and movements in the American dollar are not helping.”

“Other data has been showing general economic improvement particularly for the domestic economy, and for exports this largely relates to commodities for China. Non-commodity exports to other markets are a more difficult story, market constraints are clear and competition is increasing as others, say from Europe, look to sell in Australia and other countries as Europe struggles.”

“Our economy is feeling good in parts, but if you are an exporter of elaborate products the positive may just be that things are not as bad as they have been.”

“The LVR debate continues, but it is too early to be definitive but hopefully this policy will directly deal with asset price inflation, allowing the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to hold off OCR hikes.”

“The Reserve Bank of Australia has reiterated its contrasting stance to RBNZ, looking towards lowering their cash rate, while RBNZ still looks set to increase our OCR next year. This difference will add to the further pressure on the cross rate problem for exporters selling to Australia.”  

 

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tags: exports, manufacturing, growth, exchange rate, staff, sales, survey

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