Comments

David Thompson Posted:
So very, very true. It beggars belief that we consider ourselves to be a developed nation when so much of our economy is based on selling milk powder or logs. BTW, I own a Plinius amplifier (my second) that drives a set of Theophany speakers.
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David Thompson Posted:
A robust but sobering report. It concerns me that confidence is rising, yet sales and exports are down and "manufacturers and exporters are still lagging behind other sectors". Surely we should wait until we're earning more money before we start spending more?
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siemens Posted:
Yes true! The only thing that will never die in this world is the nature and its science behind it. Great post.
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Kieran Ormandy Posted:
Thanks for the question Steven, Germany has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2009, and Switzerland has had stable manufacturing employment between 2006 – 2011, even in the face of ongoing Euro-zone issues. Korea has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2008 and Israel experienced large increases since 1998, while being stable over the last 4 years. Singapore has had increases in manufacturing employment over the last two years. These countries all value their manufacturing sectors and work to protect them, this is reflected in the above numbers and their performance through the GFC. Note data around the above examples was sourced from OECD labour market stats.
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John Walley Posted:
Point one: you should have no doubt what our Association says publically represent the views of our members. Point two: we don’t knee jerk responses, if you trace back our comments around NZPower you will see them link all the way back to our research in 2004 and 2005. All that material is fully linked from our comments above. Point three: you will note our comments on major users, sadly the same advantage does not accrue to smaller industrial users. The perverse incentives of the LRMC approach in all this are well known. Point four: the NZMEA is not like any other Association in New Zealand we admit only manufacturers and exporters into membership, and our public expressions are the views of that restricted membership.
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24/1/14

Wait and see on the OCR


Print-friendly 2 comment(s) Posted in: In the media

Although this week's inflation numbers were slightly above expectations, it is still too early for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase the OCR without yet more collateral damage to the manufacturing and exporting sector, say the New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association (NZMEA).

NZMEA Chief Executive John Walley says, “While domestically we are seeing some positives, our value added exporters and import competing manufacturers are still confronting volume and margin challenges.”

“Increasing our OCR, in stark contrast to the rest of the world, would be making a choice to further elevate our currency from levels that are already too high. It is better to deal directly with the property problem and the underlying threat to financial stability.”

“A rising bias to our OCR would put us out of step with most other economies, world markets remain fragile and most countries are still holding or even relaxing their own monetary policy.”

“The recently reported price increases are not widespread throughout the economy and at this point the full effectiveness of the LVR restrictions are not yet clear.”

“There is still time and space to wait and see what the world brings and likely hold off any increases in the OCR for much of 2014.”

“Our NZMEA Survey of Business Conditions showed total turnover for November increasing by 10.53%, with domestic turnover decreasing 3.95%, and export turnover improving 24.86%."

"This is a change from the trends throughout 2013, which saw domestic activity generally improving, while exports experienced a more downward trend.”



tags: rbnz, ocr, interest rates, currency, exchange rates, lvr

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