Comments

David Thompson Posted:
So very, very true. It beggars belief that we consider ourselves to be a developed nation when so much of our economy is based on selling milk powder or logs. BTW, I own a Plinius amplifier (my second) that drives a set of Theophany speakers.
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David Thompson Posted:
A robust but sobering report. It concerns me that confidence is rising, yet sales and exports are down and "manufacturers and exporters are still lagging behind other sectors". Surely we should wait until we're earning more money before we start spending more?
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siemens Posted:
Yes true! The only thing that will never die in this world is the nature and its science behind it. Great post.
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Kieran Ormandy Posted:
Thanks for the question Steven, Germany has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2009, and Switzerland has had stable manufacturing employment between 2006 – 2011, even in the face of ongoing Euro-zone issues. Korea has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2008 and Israel experienced large increases since 1998, while being stable over the last 4 years. Singapore has had increases in manufacturing employment over the last two years. These countries all value their manufacturing sectors and work to protect them, this is reflected in the above numbers and their performance through the GFC. Note data around the above examples was sourced from OECD labour market stats.
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John Walley Posted:
Point one: you should have no doubt what our Association says publically represent the views of our members. Point two: we don’t knee jerk responses, if you trace back our comments around NZPower you will see them link all the way back to our research in 2004 and 2005. All that material is fully linked from our comments above. Point three: you will note our comments on major users, sadly the same advantage does not accrue to smaller industrial users. The perverse incentives of the LRMC approach in all this are well known. Point four: the NZMEA is not like any other Association in New Zealand we admit only manufacturers and exporters into membership, and our public expressions are the views of that restricted membership.
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13/3/14

RBNZ Crocodile Tears


Print-friendly 1 comment(s) Posted in: In the media

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) decision to increase the OCR by 25 basis points to 2.75% today is too early, and has the potential to further damage the tradable sector; say the New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association (NZMEA).

NZMEA Chief Executive John Walley says, “Early increases in our OCR puts us further out of line with the rest of the world in terms of monetary policy, which will have the effect of appreciating our already overvalued exchange rate. This is a major concern for exporters and import competing manufacturers.”

“The OCR increase will marginally increase borrowing costs for firms, but for most exporters, the margin lost through the exchange rate is an order of magnitude greater and as such much more damaging.”

“While the RBNZ once again has said they do not believe the current level of our exchange rate is sustainable in the long run, we are yet to see any policy response that does more than shed crocodile tears about the problem.”

“This change, and more generally the absence of a real policy response, will not be welcomed by the traded sector.”

“Inflation is important, but inflation pressures reside in the non-traded economy and interest rates do little to moderate inflation in that sector; reductions in headline inflation rely on deflation in the traded sector. For the traded sector the exchange rate determines what sort of margin gets banked, and margins are thin right now.”

“We saw all this before in the lead up to the global financial crisis, demonstrating the need for better targeted tools for the RBNZ to tackle inflation, without the broad and damaging effects of an overvalued exchange rate on the tradable sector from the OCR carpet bombs.”
“LVR “speed limits” were a step in the right direction, and seem to be having a significant and targeted effect on the housing market.”

“We need more smart, targeted policy, not more carpet bombs.”
 



tags: rbnz, reserve bank, lvr, exchange rate, currency, speed limits, increase, ocr, policy, exporters, margin

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