Comments

David Thompson Posted:
So very, very true. It beggars belief that we consider ourselves to be a developed nation when so much of our economy is based on selling milk powder or logs. BTW, I own a Plinius amplifier (my second) that drives a set of Theophany speakers.
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David Thompson Posted:
A robust but sobering report. It concerns me that confidence is rising, yet sales and exports are down and "manufacturers and exporters are still lagging behind other sectors". Surely we should wait until we're earning more money before we start spending more?
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siemens Posted:
Yes true! The only thing that will never die in this world is the nature and its science behind it. Great post.
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Kieran Ormandy Posted:
Thanks for the question Steven, Germany has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2009, and Switzerland has had stable manufacturing employment between 2006 – 2011, even in the face of ongoing Euro-zone issues. Korea has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2008 and Israel experienced large increases since 1998, while being stable over the last 4 years. Singapore has had increases in manufacturing employment over the last two years. These countries all value their manufacturing sectors and work to protect them, this is reflected in the above numbers and their performance through the GFC. Note data around the above examples was sourced from OECD labour market stats.
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John Walley Posted:
Point one: you should have no doubt what our Association says publically represent the views of our members. Point two: we don’t knee jerk responses, if you trace back our comments around NZPower you will see them link all the way back to our research in 2004 and 2005. All that material is fully linked from our comments above. Point three: you will note our comments on major users, sadly the same advantage does not accrue to smaller industrial users. The perverse incentives of the LRMC approach in all this are well known. Point four: the NZMEA is not like any other Association in New Zealand we admit only manufacturers and exporters into membership, and our public expressions are the views of that restricted membership.
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4/4/14

Better, but currency a worry


Print-friendly 1 comment(s) Posted in: In the media

The latest New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association (NZMEA) Survey of Business Conditions completed during March 2014, shows total sales in February 2014 increased 9.16% (year on year export sales increased by 14.87% with domestic sales increasing 3.99%) on February 2013.

The NZMEA survey sample this month covered NZ$406m in annualised sales, with an export content of 50%.

Net confidence was at 35, up on January’s result of 21.

The current performance index (a combination of profitability and cash flow) is at 98.7, unchanged from January, the change index (capacity utilisation, staff levels, orders and inventories) was at 105, up from 102 in the last survey, and the forecast index (investment, sales, profitability and staff) is at 107.67, up on Januarys result of 107.17. Anything less than 100 indicates a contraction.

Constraints reported were 59% markets, 24% production capacity and 18% skilled staff.

Net 65% of firms reported a modest rise in productivity for February.

Staff numbers in February decreased year on year by 0.19%.

All staff segments, tradespersons, operators/labourers/ supervisors, managers and professional/scientists, reported a moderate shortage for February.

“This month’s survey shows a general improvement on nearly all measures other than the small decrease in staff numbers.”

“We have now seen the first, of several, OCR increases by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) despite our overvalued currency. Following this increase we have seen the dollar reach new post float highs on the Trade Weighted Index (TWI). The RBNZ was clear about their traffic light system for judging whether currency intervention is warranted, shedding further crocodile tears and admitting to deliberately deflating the tradeable sector in line with the tightening bias in monetary policy – we have seen all this before.”

“Interest rates are a blunt tool and fail to target inflation at the source in our domestic economy; the traded sector is not the source of inflation but deflation there does lower the headline result.”

“As this trend continues the tradable sector will continue to cease operation in New Zealand, through closure or relocation, and our economy will regress to the export of minimally processed raw materials. There is not much added value in that strategy. We need to think beyond milk powder and logs.”

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tags: survey, manufacturing, exports, sales, currency, exchange rate, investment, tradable

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