Comments

David Thompson Posted:
So very, very true. It beggars belief that we consider ourselves to be a developed nation when so much of our economy is based on selling milk powder or logs. BTW, I own a Plinius amplifier (my second) that drives a set of Theophany speakers.
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David Thompson Posted:
A robust but sobering report. It concerns me that confidence is rising, yet sales and exports are down and "manufacturers and exporters are still lagging behind other sectors". Surely we should wait until we're earning more money before we start spending more?
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siemens Posted:
Yes true! The only thing that will never die in this world is the nature and its science behind it. Great post.
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Kieran Ormandy Posted:
Thanks for the question Steven, Germany has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2009, and Switzerland has had stable manufacturing employment between 2006 – 2011, even in the face of ongoing Euro-zone issues. Korea has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2008 and Israel experienced large increases since 1998, while being stable over the last 4 years. Singapore has had increases in manufacturing employment over the last two years. These countries all value their manufacturing sectors and work to protect them, this is reflected in the above numbers and their performance through the GFC. Note data around the above examples was sourced from OECD labour market stats.
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John Walley Posted:
Point one: you should have no doubt what our Association says publically represent the views of our members. Point two: we don’t knee jerk responses, if you trace back our comments around NZPower you will see them link all the way back to our research in 2004 and 2005. All that material is fully linked from our comments above. Point three: you will note our comments on major users, sadly the same advantage does not accrue to smaller industrial users. The perverse incentives of the LRMC approach in all this are well known. Point four: the NZMEA is not like any other Association in New Zealand we admit only manufacturers and exporters into membership, and our public expressions are the views of that restricted membership.
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9/2/15

Exports fall after positive trend


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The latest New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association (NZMEA) Survey of Business Conditions completed during January 2015, shows total sales in December 2014 increased 0.02% (year on year export sales decreased by 7.88% with domestic sales increasing 14.07%) on December 2013.

The NZMEA survey sample this month covered NZ$332m in annualised sales, with an export content of 59%.

Net confidence rose to 38, up from 27 in November.

The current performance index (a combination of profitability and cash flow) is at 101.3, up from 97.7 last month, the change index (capacity utilisation, staff levels, orders and inventories) was at 103, up from 99 in the last survey, and the forecast index (investment, sales, profitability and staff) is at 108.33, up on the last result of 107.83. Anything less than 100 indicates a contraction.

Constraints reported were 63% markets, 19% production capacity, 13% skilled staff and 6% capital.

Net 13% of firms reported a modest rise in productivity for December.

Staff numbers for December increased 4.18%.

Tradespersons, supervisors, managers, operators/labourers and professional/scientists reported a moderate shortage.

“This month saw domestic activity improve on the back of a negative trend in the second half of 2014, while year on year export sales remained negative for the second month after what was a very positive year for exports,” says NZMEA Chief Executive John Walley.

“November and December reported a fall in exports sales, the first negative results since September 2013.”

“Confidence improved along with all three index measures, showing firms still had positive future expectations, while staff numbers increased 4.18% year on year. The market constraint increased and comments focused on the weak Australian dollar.”

“The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held the OCR at 3.5% in January, saying they expect to hold rates for some time, but changing their language to open up the possibility of future rate cuts, triggering some welcome exchange rate depreciation. Since then the RBNZ has continued to express concern over an overvalued exchange rate and again repeated they still anticipate further “significant depreciation.”

“Any moves the RBNZ can make to speed up the correction of our currency would support the tradable sector – the exchange rate has a significant effect on the margins and competitiveness of our manufacturers and exporters.”

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tags: survey, manufacturing, confidence, rbnz, ocr, interest rates, exchange rate

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