Comments

David Thompson Posted:
So very, very true. It beggars belief that we consider ourselves to be a developed nation when so much of our economy is based on selling milk powder or logs. BTW, I own a Plinius amplifier (my second) that drives a set of Theophany speakers.
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David Thompson Posted:
A robust but sobering report. It concerns me that confidence is rising, yet sales and exports are down and "manufacturers and exporters are still lagging behind other sectors". Surely we should wait until we're earning more money before we start spending more?
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siemens Posted:
Yes true! The only thing that will never die in this world is the nature and its science behind it. Great post.
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Kieran Ormandy Posted:
Thanks for the question Steven, Germany has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2009, and Switzerland has had stable manufacturing employment between 2006 – 2011, even in the face of ongoing Euro-zone issues. Korea has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2008 and Israel experienced large increases since 1998, while being stable over the last 4 years. Singapore has had increases in manufacturing employment over the last two years. These countries all value their manufacturing sectors and work to protect them, this is reflected in the above numbers and their performance through the GFC. Note data around the above examples was sourced from OECD labour market stats.
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John Walley Posted:
Point one: you should have no doubt what our Association says publically represent the views of our members. Point two: we don’t knee jerk responses, if you trace back our comments around NZPower you will see them link all the way back to our research in 2004 and 2005. All that material is fully linked from our comments above. Point three: you will note our comments on major users, sadly the same advantage does not accrue to smaller industrial users. The perverse incentives of the LRMC approach in all this are well known. Point four: the NZMEA is not like any other Association in New Zealand we admit only manufacturers and exporters into membership, and our public expressions are the views of that restricted membership.
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6/3/15

Good start to 2015


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The latest New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association (NZMEA) Survey of Business Conditions completed during February 2015, shows total sales in January 2015 increased 10.29% (year on year export sales increased by 11.61% with domestic sales increasing 6.52%) on January 2014.

The NZMEA survey sample this month covered NZ$502m in annualised sales, with an export content of 75%.

Net confidence fell to 21, down from 38 in December.

The current performance index (a combination of profitability and cash flow) is at 100.3, down from 101.3 last month, the change index (capacity utilisation, staff levels, orders and inventories) was at 100, down from 103 in the last survey, and the forecast index (investment, sales, profitability and staff) is at 106.5, down on the last result of 108.33. Anything over 100 indicates expansion.

Constraints reported were 50% markets, 36% production capacity, and 14% skilled staff.

Net 7% of firms reported a modest rise in productivity for January.

Staff numbers for January increased 0.62%.

Tradespersons, supervisors, managers, and operators/labourers all reported a moderate shortage, while professional/scientists showed a minor shortage.

“Domestic sales continued their positive trend, bouncing back from falls in the middle of 2014. Year on year export sales turned positive this month, after their falling trend towards the end of 2014. The market constraint reduced, while the production capacity constraint increased,” says NZMEA Chief Executive John Walley.

“Confidence and all three index measures fell back this month, even though both export and domestic sales saw improvements. This is in contrast to recent months, where confidence and index measures have often been improving in the face of falling or flat sales.”

“For most exporters the rebound of the U.S. economy is providing a bright spot and growth opportunities; in contrast the recent rise of the NZ$ against the AU$ has added pressure for those selling into the Australian market. Conditions in Europe remain mixed and quite uncertain.”

“The Reserve Bank of Australia held their policy rate after cutting earlier in the year, but signalled more cuts are likely in the coming months. This would add further upward pressure on the exchange rate – the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) could easily cut our OCR in response, due to low inflation, however more would need to be done to slow house price inflation – both through government response and macro-prudential policy by the RBNZ to control lending volumes and consequently financial stability risks."

"We support the RBNZ's move to consult on capital adequacy for property investors - this is a step in the right direction. The final solution could relate debt to the earning capacity of the asset, to retrain price bubbles, enhance financial stability and help the traded economy."
 


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tags: survey, manufacturing, exporting, sales, staff, confidence, rbnz, rba, property, exchange rate

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