Comments

David Thompson Posted:
So very, very true. It beggars belief that we consider ourselves to be a developed nation when so much of our economy is based on selling milk powder or logs. BTW, I own a Plinius amplifier (my second) that drives a set of Theophany speakers.
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David Thompson Posted:
A robust but sobering report. It concerns me that confidence is rising, yet sales and exports are down and "manufacturers and exporters are still lagging behind other sectors". Surely we should wait until we're earning more money before we start spending more?
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siemens Posted:
Yes true! The only thing that will never die in this world is the nature and its science behind it. Great post.
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Kieran Ormandy Posted:
Thanks for the question Steven, Germany has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2009, and Switzerland has had stable manufacturing employment between 2006 – 2011, even in the face of ongoing Euro-zone issues. Korea has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2008 and Israel experienced large increases since 1998, while being stable over the last 4 years. Singapore has had increases in manufacturing employment over the last two years. These countries all value their manufacturing sectors and work to protect them, this is reflected in the above numbers and their performance through the GFC. Note data around the above examples was sourced from OECD labour market stats.
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John Walley Posted:
Point one: you should have no doubt what our Association says publically represent the views of our members. Point two: we don’t knee jerk responses, if you trace back our comments around NZPower you will see them link all the way back to our research in 2004 and 2005. All that material is fully linked from our comments above. Point three: you will note our comments on major users, sadly the same advantage does not accrue to smaller industrial users. The perverse incentives of the LRMC approach in all this are well known. Point four: the NZMEA is not like any other Association in New Zealand we admit only manufacturers and exporters into membership, and our public expressions are the views of that restricted membership.
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8/5/15

A return to growth in March


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The latest New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association (NZMEA) Survey of Business Conditions completed during April 2015, shows total sales in March 2015 increased 22.38% (year on year export sales increased by 26.63% with domestic sales increasing 13.6%) on March 2014.

The NZMEA survey sample this month covered NZ$380m in annualised sales, with an export content of 70%.

Net confidence rose to -5, up from -13 in February.

The current performance index (a combination of profitability and cash flow) is at 94.3, down from 95.3 last month, the change index (capacity utilisation, staff levels, orders and inventories) was at 100, up from 99 in the last survey, and the forecast index (investment, sales, profitability and staff) is at 100.83, down on the last result of 102.33. Anything over 100 indicates expansion.

Constraints reported were 68% markets, 23% skilled staff, and 9% production capacity.

Net 9% of firms reported a modest rise in productivity in March.

Staff numbers for March increased 5.51% year on year.

Tradespersons, supervisors, managers, professional/scientists and operators/labourers all reported a moderate shortage.

“This month domestic sales again experienced growth, showing year on year turnover increases for the fourth month in a row. Export sales bounced back in March, a significant improvement from the large fall felt in February. Overall, a positive sales result for March,” says NZMEA President Tom Thomson.

“Confidence improved a little on February, but remained in negative territory. The change index measure improved slightly on last month, while the performance and forecast indexes fell back.

“The market constraint increased significantly on last month, reflecting continued pressure of a high exchange rate against the AUD and on a TWI basis and some continued soft international markets, particularly in Australia and Europe. The production capacity constraint decreased considerably on last month. Finding skilled staff is becoming more difficult; this constraint experienced its highest value since April 2011.

“The strength of our dollar against the AUD continues to be reported as a major concern in the survey. With inflation well below target, and wage inflation lower than expectations, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) could cut the OCR to bring our interest rates more in line with that of the rest of the world, and relieve pressure on our exchange rate, putting our exporters and import competing manufacturers on a more level playing field to succeed. However, more needs to be done to tackle risks in the Auckland housing market.” says Tom Thomson.
 

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tags: survey, manufacturers, exports, housing, exchange rate, currency, aud

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