Comments

David Thompson Posted:
So very, very true. It beggars belief that we consider ourselves to be a developed nation when so much of our economy is based on selling milk powder or logs. BTW, I own a Plinius amplifier (my second) that drives a set of Theophany speakers.
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David Thompson Posted:
A robust but sobering report. It concerns me that confidence is rising, yet sales and exports are down and "manufacturers and exporters are still lagging behind other sectors". Surely we should wait until we're earning more money before we start spending more?
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siemens Posted:
Yes true! The only thing that will never die in this world is the nature and its science behind it. Great post.
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Kieran Ormandy Posted:
Thanks for the question Steven, Germany has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2009, and Switzerland has had stable manufacturing employment between 2006 – 2011, even in the face of ongoing Euro-zone issues. Korea has seen increases in manufacturing employment since 2008 and Israel experienced large increases since 1998, while being stable over the last 4 years. Singapore has had increases in manufacturing employment over the last two years. These countries all value their manufacturing sectors and work to protect them, this is reflected in the above numbers and their performance through the GFC. Note data around the above examples was sourced from OECD labour market stats.
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John Walley Posted:
Point one: you should have no doubt what our Association says publically represent the views of our members. Point two: we don’t knee jerk responses, if you trace back our comments around NZPower you will see them link all the way back to our research in 2004 and 2005. All that material is fully linked from our comments above. Point three: you will note our comments on major users, sadly the same advantage does not accrue to smaller industrial users. The perverse incentives of the LRMC approach in all this are well known. Point four: the NZMEA is not like any other Association in New Zealand we admit only manufacturers and exporters into membership, and our public expressions are the views of that restricted membership.
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7/11/16

Manufacturing Confidence Hit in September


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The latest New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association (NZMEA) Survey of Business Conditions completed during October 2016, shows total sales in September 2016 decreased 6.72% (year on year export sales decreased by 11.72% with domestic sales increasing by 17.12%) on September 2015.

In the 3 months to September, export sales decreased an average of 7.0%, and domestic sales increased 5.2% on average.

The NZMEA survey sample this month covered NZ$276m in annualised sales, with an export content of 78%.

Net confidence fell to -23, down from 22 in August.

The current performance index (a combination of profitability and cash flow) is at 94.3, down from 100.7 last month, the change index (capacity utilisation, staff levels, orders and inventories) was at 99, down from 101 in the last survey, and the forecast index (investment, sales, profitability and staff) is at 102.33, down on the last result of 109.2. Anything over 100 indicates expansion.

Constraints reported were 77% markets, 15% skilled staff and 8% capital.

There was no net reported productivity increase for September.

Staff numbers decreased 2.81% year on year in September.

Supervisors, tradespersons, managers, professional/scientists and operators/labourers reported a moderate shortage.

“Coming off the solid increase in export sales felt in August, year on year export sales in September moved back into negative, showing an 11.72% fall on sales in September 2015. This lead to an average monthly decrease of 7% of export sales in the three months to September – extending this out to over the last 12 months gives an average export sales growth of 0.8%.” Said Dieter Adam.

“The majority of manufacturing sales reported in September came from exports, at a reported 78% of total sales from respondents. September domestic sales in comparison to exports saw increases on the previous year. Domestic sales increased 17.12% on September 2015. This gave an average increase of 5.2% in the three months to September, and 3.7% over the last 12 months.

“Last month’s increase in confidence was reversed, with net confidence down to -23 in September. This was the first time net confidence has been negative since May 2015, and the lowest result since March 2014.

“The fall in confidence was accompanied by reductions in all three index measures. The performance index fell back into contraction at 94.3, the lowest level since March 2015. The forecast index fell back on the highs felt last month, but remained in expansion at 102.33, while the change index move down to 99, from 101 in August.

“These results in September do show some contrast with other measures, such as the PMI, which moved higher in September from August. Domestic sales are more consistent with the PMI. Some of the decline in exports we observed may be explained by lumpy sales month by month, but when paired with the lower confidence and index measures, it does suggest some challenges hitting export sales in September. The currency has fallen back from highs, but remains at a level where it is adding pressure on exporters and import competition manufacturers.” Said Dieter.  

The New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association survey gathers results from members around New Zealand. It provides a monthly snapshot of manufacturers and exporters’ sales and sentiment.


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tags: survey, manufacturing, exports, staff, sales, domestic, markets

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