Survey - Domestic Sales Support Growth
The latest New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association (NZMEA) Survey of Business Conditions completed during March 2010, shows total sales in February 2010 increased 1% (export sales decreased by 16% with domestic sales increasing 12%) on February 2009.
The NZMEA survey sample this month covered NZ$428m in annualised sales, with an export content of 29%.
Net confidence decreased to 36, down from the 45 result reported last month.
The current performance index (a combination of profitability and cash flow) is at 105.5, up from 100.5 in January, the change index (capacity utilisation, staff levels, orders and inventories) went up to 103 from 99 in the last survey, and the forecast index (investment, sales, profitability and staff) is at 106, up on February’s result of 104.5. Anything less than 100 indicates a contraction.
Markets remained the only reported constraint.
Staff numbers for February decreased year on year by 8%.
“Overall sales have turned positive due to improving domestic sales,” says NZMEA Chief Executive John Walley. “Export sales and staff numbers are still a concern with an overvalued exchange rate and weak international markets combining to ruin returns to exporters.”
“Index numbers and future expectations are continuing to improve which is a positive sign, but the sales and staff numbers give a more accurate picture of where the economy is right now.”
“Our own results reflect those from the economy as a whole, with the latest numbers from Statistics New Zealand showing slight Gross Domestic Product growth but a deterioration in the current account deficit, indicating worsening conditions for the tradeable sector.”
“More investment and more jobs in the tradeable sector will only follow improved profitability through policy settings that return an exchange rate based on trade.”
“The International Monetary Fund has belatedly realised that for small economies exchange rate control is an important part of macroeconomic management, and we have seen countries that ignored the dogma and exerted control on their exchange rates grow much faster over the past decade. The Government need to recognise this point and start to progress some changes.”
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